The Russian Ruble And The Dollar In December 2014
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The Russian Ruble And the Dollar In December 2014

Who has more gold sets the rules.

The New golden rule.

The question that should excite the Russian people is quite simple: to what extent will the dollar to rise in Russia? When more useful to buy this reserve currency and when it is advisable to sell it? Lets try amateurishly reflect on these tasks.Beginning of December 2014 was marked in Russia by the fact that the dollar rose strongly against the ruble over decision of OPEC to maintain oil production rate. After the announcement of the news, oil prices began to fall rapidly to multi-year lows. In turn, the dollar immediately climbed to unexpectedly high step - 50 rubles, which in November even most radical forecasters did not dare to remember. And green paper, as it seems, is not going to stop. What to do? There are few who trusts disgraced banking experts now. But are there some tangible reasons for rise in price of US money in Russia?

Public sector wages - a sacred thing.

The first reason - the need to maintain the flow of funds to the state budget. The government of Russia reported that the current oil price is acceptable to the russian budget as the drop in prices for oil offset by lower exchange rate.

Alexei Ulyukayev, Economic Development Minister: "For the budget system is important not the dollar component but the ruble price of oil. It is about 3600 rubles per barrel. These 3,600 rubles consists of two factors: expression of dollar price of oil and the relation of the dollar and the ruble. When the price of oil in dollars was 110, the course was - 32-33 rubles per dollar. Same thing today, when the price of 71-72 dollars per barrel, while the rate - 49-50 rubles to the dollar. These are same 3600".

So following the logic of this Ulyukayev, who in the mid-90s was an assistant of E.Gaidar and head of the Moscow branch of the party "Democratic Choice of Russia" as soon as the oil is cheaper, for example, up to $ 50 per barrel, the US coin will be allowed to be sold in Russia 72 rubles! That is twice as much as in the summer of 2014.

Will be in this case increase of public sector wages and pensions by half is not implied. The minister-liberal is not confused by the fact that this "arithmetic" will lead to a catastrophic depletion of Russian citizens.

Save gold reserves.

The second factor to be taken into account when solving the task at hand is the size of Russia's international reserves (GCR). The exact value of this parameter – is secret value for certain. In sources available to the people we found $ 420 billion in November 2014.

With the price of the dollar - 50 rubles, the total gold reserves of 21 trillion rubles (21 thousand billion - for those who is not good in counting zeroes in astronomical sums). Given the fact that not all the gold reserves are to be exchanged, and about $100 billion remain for the guaranteed payment for imports and foreign debt to Russia, the amount of currency for sale is reduced to 16 trillion rubles.

Gold reserves of the Bank of Russia should be enough to meet the sudden demand for foreign currency.

It remains to estimate how quickly the masses of russians will consume these gold reserves when, yielding to the stock panic, would desire to turn their ruble savings into foreign currency. In other words, how many rubles have population and enterprises in Russia in savings?

The volume of deposits of the population, estimated by experts, was named in "Rossiyskaya Gazeta", the official organ of our government. It is about 17 trillion rubles. Deposits in foreign currency - 3.42 trillion rubles.

It can be concluded that the beginning of 2015 the population will have slightly more than 13 trillion rubles in ruble deposits. If the entire population of Russia will rush to buy foreign currency, closing their ruble deposits, it would appear that the amount of rubles which threaten the safety of gold reserves does not exceed the amount of gold reserves yet. Hence the conclusion that in order to meet the demands of the Russians dollar price should be maintained at 50 rubles to the dollar. Then the proportion of gold reserves, which can be used in the form of foreign exchange intervention, will be enough to ensure greenbacks everyone. Perhaps it is this value - 50 rubles to the dollar - the limit corresponds to the local increase in the price of the dollar in Russia in late 2014 - early 2015.

It is advisable to restrict imports in order to reduce the proportion of gold reserves required to guarantees. We know that and today it is done in Russia.

In his amateurish calculations I estimated only participation of the population in inflation but the main currency speculators in fact - legal entities, corporations and banks.

For example how do we will extinguish the external debt of Russia (mainly debts of corporations and monopolies) which on October 1, 2014 was $ 678 billion? Only the interest and repayment of the loan at the end of 2014 will pull out of Russia tens of billions of dollars. It looks menacing, but not disastrous if people do not hurry to part with their rubles.

On one hand, as we see, the stabilization of the dollar is not profitable for the budget, on the other hand the continued devaluation of the national currency will force the Russians to somehow save their savings and this threatens the rapid depletion of gold reserves.

Conclude that limit the growth of the dollar - 50 rubles. And then it is necessary to follow the price of oil. Will it start to go up - sell your greenbacks, will it go down - run to the bank for currency. And then your life will be interesting even with tight belts.

In Russian read: The Russian Ruble And the Dollar In December 2014


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All people to read, who are interested in the country Russia.

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  about 6 years ago
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