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As a pre-Christmas present to smooth the economic yo-yo market of recent months; ECB (European Central Bank) has offered €489.19 bn of low collateral debts in exchange for loans pegged at the ECB rate (which currently stands at 1%). With over 500 banks , 523 to be more precise, this means that when it comes to 2015 (the end of three years loan deal), the debt matures for repayment, and the scary part is that will cost the EU banks dearly - around € 700 bn.
Of course, such step was needed to save the Euro and recurrence of another financial crisis, which undoubtedly would have the spill over effects around the world (as it happen back in 2008). Yet, I feel that this question will be reopen very soon and decision will need to be made urgently to avoid such crisis in 2015.
Now, why shall we expect a financial meltdown if this short-sighted remedy is not resolved beforehand?
Well, firstly, the EU banks are already under high financial pressure, followed by bail out of weaken economies, as an example based on June 2011 figures, that's how much of foreign debt is already owed by these countries to the banks : Spain € 1.9 trillion, Ireland € 1.7 trillion, Italy € 2 trillion, Portugal and Greece - € 0.4 trillion each. Those amounts are so huge, that there is no guarantee that repayment is feasible and moreover that amount borrowed from ECB is enough to maintain and back up these EU member states from further collapse in three years time; not mentioning paying back to ECB. It is most likely this time frame will be stretched further to ten years and more until the economies will pick up; and if that happens the amount of debt will only mount more and more creating a pressure inside of a loan bubble to burst.
Secondly, the economies are not doing well with their slow growing GDP (Gross domestic product - total market value of all products and services, produced in the country during certain time) and the proportion of foreign debt to date. While, we are paying attention on restoring the EU and preventing a financial turmoil, it is ordinary taxpayers who suffer, but there is only that much pressure that everyone can resist to.
The difference is, although Spain, Portugal and Greece do owe monies, the picture we need to look at is this: how much of the foreign debt this means per person? And to you surprise, the UK is in much worse position , including our neighbour Ireland, than all Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy together! I refer to the BBC financial data* , the foreign debt, allocated per person in the countries as follows: Italy €32,875, Portugal €38,081, Greece € 38,073, Spain € 41,366 , the UK - € 117,580 and Ireland € 399,969. (and this data collated before the ECB offer, which was actioned in December 2011 and means that the actual situation now may well be much worse).
The UK GDP of € 1.7 trillion is not suffice to recover the foreign debt of € 7.3 trillion, which partly belongs to the rescue contribution to the EU countries. The money flow chart of owed to owned currently as follows : Germany € 141 billion ( the UK owned €379), France €227 billion (the UK owned € 209 billion), Spain €316 billion (the UK owned €74 billion), Japan € 122 billion (owned €102 billion), Ireland €113 billion (owned €104), the US €578 billion (owned €835 billion).
So, does it mean that the ECB loan is a remedy or is it a time bomb? Both.
It is a remedy to start with, which delays a point to make a decision in resolving this huge burden of debts, hence it is a dangerous time bomb too. This has to be brought to attention sooner or later, and better sooner; before the Eurobonds require to be paid, before the ECB loans mature, before other malicious threat appears. Just remember the property bubble in the US, when it is all started with collateralized debt obligation (CDO) and resulted in the global crisis, drowning the US economy into huge debt of $15 trillion (which largely affects the inflation, economic growth and interest rates). The action is needed urgently with a realistic view as a collaboration from every country worldwide.
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