Russia Is Implementing A Plan 30 Years Ago? Social Unrest In The West And Nato's Weakness Is A Chance To Attack
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Russia is Implementing A Plan 30 Years Ago? Social Unrest In the West And Nato\'s Weakness is A Chance to Attack

Persistent tension for several months in Russia's relations with the West, caused by Moscow's aggression on a sovereign Ukrainian state, call into question the possibility of the outbreak of war in Europe. Between Putin's Russia and NATO sparks a long time. The more that the Kremlin uses the West unprecedented since the fall of the Soviet Union anti-Western rhetoric.

The tension in relations between Russia and the West, caused by President Vladimir Putin, held for several months. He violated the European order created after the Cold War, and his actions may lead to a new Cold War.

Certainly, today the West is prepared analysis and possible scenarios taking into account the possibility of the outbreak of war in Europe. For obvious reasons, they are not known to the general public.

However, we already know a number of documents from the time before western collapse of the USSR and on their basis we can judge whether the current tension in relations with Russia is similar to the former Soviet Union Cold War - the West. We can also assess to what extent some of Moscow's behavior that could lead to the possibility of war on our continent are copies of the behavior of the past.

In the archives of the Central Intelligence Agency found the 45-page document entitled "Warning before the war in Europe (" Warning of War in Europe ")", which was drawn up exactly 31 years ago, in June 1984.

Its authors, representing various US intelligence structure, present state of knowledge and assumptions about the possibilities of starting a European war by the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact subordinated to him.

As the authors write in the introduction to the report, the analysis includes an assessment of political, military, economic and civilian Soviet bloc that must be implemented by the Warsaw Pact to this he was ready for war with the Western NATO alliance. The key position in the report deal with the estimates on the possible western interviews to capture information about Moscow's preparations for war.

According to a report in the spring of 1984. West not recorded the interviews that Moscow and Warsaw Pact gearing up for war with the West. Interview highlights in its assessment that it is likely an oversight initial phase of preparations for war by the Soviet side, but advanced preparation will certainly be recognized.

Analysis warnings

The report "warning before the war in Europe," says that no single point at which you can clearly say that war is inevitable.

Warning before the war, the authors wrote, "there is never a single, it is a process of transferring warnings about the growing threat". By analyzing these warnings, interviews may come to the conclusion that the war begins, but this conclusion can obviously come too late. Warnings before the war is primarily a "political leaders communicate interviews ratings, which came to the conclusion that the state or alliance of states has a policy leading to risks of war and taken measures to prepare for war". The report indicates that it is impossible to evaluate all faultlessly and assessment of the situation is taken at a political level.

scenarios

In these variants possible attack by the Warsaw Pact armies on the Alliance interviews countries belonging to NATO would need 24 hours to 48 hours a warning politicians about the possibility of war. The most possible attack on the West could be carried by 85 to 90 Soviet divisions and other divisions in the Polish People's Army. Preparing for the attack lasted from 15 days to approx. 3 weeks. Interviews West could recognize them in approx. 48 hours, which would give NATO a minimum of 13 days to react. Moscow aim was primarily to defeat the West in the area of Germany.Not excluded was quick attack on West Berlin or, for example. Hamburg and after their conquest of ultimatums to place America and Western Europe. The Soviet Union was aware, however, that even a limited attack would entail NATO's rapid nuclear retaliation.

After a possible victory of the communist bloc in Germany a possible attack on France, Spain and Portugal would depend on the attitude of these countries during the war. In Europe it hoped that Sweden will support NATO, although Moscow was planning to Western belief neutral countries to refrain from helping the Atlantic Alliance.Similarities and differences

Reading the report of interviews western of 31 years ago, we can quickly find obvious similarities to the current situation and the obvious differences.

To complete the picture, we do not forget, however, that the report was created in 1984. Whenever in divided Germany, stationed himself in front of half a million troops of the USSR and the US Army. Army strike force of the Warsaw Pact was calculated in the millions of soldiers, and both superpowers dysponowały approx. 20 thousand. nuclear warheads. This is a fundamental difference compared to the current situation. However, a warning has to be the desire of Vladimir Putin and his team to rebuild Russia's power of earlier times, and to return to co-decide about Europe and the world.


Street Talk

The prospect of a new war in Europe, however remote, or a new cold war are certainly chilling prospects to contemplate...

Reply
  about 7 years ago
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