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stock market
economic prosperity
crazy ride
great depression
unemployment rate
government workers
spending money
ups
Where Is The Stock Market Heading?
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The stock market has been on a crazy ride lately. With large ups and sharp downs in stock market prices, it's hard to know from day to day where the market is heading. I want to begin by asking that you don't make any decisions based on what I say. I'm an amateur trader and am fairly new to the stock market arena myself. Therefore, be warned that I have opinions, but they are just that, my opinions. Please, do your own research and consult with people you have confidence in before you decide to take any action.

You don't need be an economic genius to conclude that our country is in the worst economy since the Great Depression. A large number of the people employed are employed by government. Unfortunately, when the government employs someone, it is a net loss for the economy. By that I mean that when the government (local, state, or federal) employs an individual it is a drain on the gross domestic product. While it's true that a government employee spends money within the economy and one might think that is a plus for economic prosperity; the entire salary paid to a government employee is paid by taxpayers. Therefore, any gain realized by the economy through the employee spending money is negated many times over by the cost to the taxpayer and the corresponding drain on the economy. As a result of many of the employed being government workers and not part of the private sector, the sector which bolsters the economy, the true health of the economy is far worst than current "statistics" may show. For this and other reasons, it is my opinion that the unemployment rate is far worse than the rate currently quoted.

Also, there are the under-employed. An under-employed person is a person who is either working at a part time job when they used to have a full-time job, or an employee that has taken a job currently where the rate of pay is below what they made in the past, or a self-employed person who is making far less than they used to make due to lack of work.

As hard as it may be to believe, Europe is in worse shape. The banking system and the Euro are on life support. A number of people have openly stated that they don't have a clue what they need to do to solve the European problems. Greece is a mess, and other european countries are not too far behind.

Much press has been made of the cash that American companies currently have on hand. Many people are using the cash rich status of American companies as their reason for believing that good times are ahead. The optimists and some financial commentators believe sometime in the near future those cash rich companies will spring into action, begin spending that money, hire new employees and life will be good again. In my opinion, it's important to ask why those companies are sitting on all that cash? I believe for one reason it's because they are afraid to spend it on inventory as they don't believe they're going to have any business in the near future. Another reason I believe those companies aren't spending any of their money is that they don't want to spend money on new employees because they are extremely fearful of the future and feel certain they will have to lay-off those new employees. Still, a possible third reason they may not spend that cash is they believe they're going to need it to pay off accumulated debt to stay afloat. Companies taking actions that look like they're only planning on survival doesn't look like a reason for optimism to me.

I went through everything above as support for my conclusion that I am of the opinion the stock market is going to fall and it's going to fall long and hard. That doesn't mean there won't be weeks like last week when the market had an "up" week. I am sure there will be more up weeks, but the overall trend currently is down and I believe that this trend will continue for quite some time.


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